 | | Friday, January 15, 2010 |  | |  | | MORNING FIX
BY CHRIS CILLIZZA | | | | washingtonpost.com/thefix
New poll shows Brown ahead in Mass. Senate special election
1. A new Suffolk University poll shows state Sen. Scott Brown (R) has surged to a 50 percent to 46 percent lead over state Attorney General Martha Coakley with four days left in the Massachusetts Senate special election. The poll, which was released late Thursday night, reveals fascinating data, most of which paints a tough portrait for Coakley. An example: Just one in four voters think she will be an independent voice while 64 percent said she would "toe the party line." The poll suggests that Coakley's best (last?) chance to salvage the race might be to bring President Obama to the state; Obama is still viewed positively in the state with 55 percent having a favorable opinion of him and 35 percent regarding him unfavorably. The White House has been mum about a last-minute Obama visit although a trip by the president to the state even as the disaster in Haiti continues to play out on television screens across the country would be a clear risk. The new Suffolk numbers come just as the television airwaves have reached their saturation point -- one Republican tells the Fix that there is almost no television time left to buy. What that likely means is that the paid media for both sides will likely cancel itself out and the final few days will be a battle for so-called earned media -- a.k.a. press coverage by the state's newspapers, television channels and radio stations. That means that what Coakley and Brown do -- or don't do -- tactically over the next few days on the stump can make all the difference. We asked one smart strategist from each party to break down what their side needs to do to win on Tuesday. From the Democratic side: "It is about the message -- can Brown really be an effective ambassador for you to Washington? The answer is no, but we aren't there yet. If they make it about that message, we will win. If they make it about Democratic big-wigs, we will lose." From the Republican side: "Brown needs to keep doing what he's been doing, partly riding a national wave that might engulf Massachusetts, and partly being a nice guy Republican who's a reasonable alternative to the chilly Coakley. Brown has been skillfully riding these two waves and that's got him in likely a dead heat in a 3-1 Democratic state."
2. Fight! Fight! Fight! There are few things better to a political junkie than a scrap between two high-level consultants. So, you can imagine our joy when a Post op-ed by Obama administration senior adviser David Axelrod chastising former Bush White House senior adviser Karl Rove came across the transom. The column functioned as a rebuttal to comments Rove made last week in the Post regarding advice he would offer Democrats heading into the midterms. Rove wrote (among other things) that Democrats will have accumulated "more debt by October than Bush did in eight years." Not so, according to Axelrod who slams Rove for his "sheer audacity and shamelessness." (No. He. Didn't.) Axelrod argues that the "Bush administration's swing from surpluses to deficits added more debt in its eight years than all the previous administrations in the history of our republic combined" and lays the origins of the economic recession at the feet of policies put into place by Bush. "This fiscal irresponsibility -- and a laissez-faire attitude toward the excesses of the financial industry -- helped create the conditions for the deepest economic catastrophe since the Great Depression," writes Axelrod. While the Axelrod vs. Rove dynamic is interesting only to those of us who follow politics closely, the fight over who is to blame for the current economic woes gripping the country is critically important to both parties heading into the midterm elections. Democrats point out -- as does Axelrod in his op-ed -- that the actions taken by Obama in his first year in office were necessary evils to clean up the mess left by Bush. Republican retort that Obama took a bad situation and made it far worse by boosting government spending rather than finding ways to boost the private sector. It's a debate that you will be hearing a lot more between now and November.
3. One week removed from the retirement of Sen. Chris Dodd (D), a new Quinnipiac University poll shows state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) far ahead of his Republican rivals. Blumenthal holds a 62 percent to 27 percent edge over former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) and a 64 percent to 23 percent margin over wealthy businesswoman Linda McMahon (R). His approval numbers are also stratospherically good with nearly three quarters of the state's voters seeing him in a favorable light and just 13 percent regarding him unfavorably. Even Republicans view Blumenthal in an extremely positive light with 62 percent giving him a favorable rating and just 29 percent seeing him unfavorably. Those numbers will almost certainly decline once Republicans pick a candidate and, for the first time in two decades, Blumenthal must run a serious campaign. But, he starts with a huge edge that would be the envy of almost any politician in the country. The news is far less positive in the poll for Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) who is already a top Democratic target despite the fact he isn't up for reelection until 2012. Just 39 percent of the sample approved of how Lieberman is doing his job while 54 percent disapproved -- significant erosion for the incumbent since a November Q poll that showed him at 49 approve/44 disapprove. Already Rep. Chris Murphy is positioning himself for the Democratic nomination to run against Lieberman although there is some talk that Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz, who dropped out of the governor's race to run for state Attorney General earlier this week, might also take a serious look at a bid too.
4. Speaking of lopsided Senate races, a new Research 2000 poll for the liberal Daily Kos blog affirms that North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven (R) is the runaway favorite to flip retiring Sen. Byron Dorgan's seat in the fall. Hoeven, who is currently in his third term as governor, holds a commanding 56 percent to 32 percent lead over television talk show host Ed Schultz (D) and a 55 percent to 34 percent edge over former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D). Hoeven beat Heitkamp 55 percent to 45 percent to win his first term in 2000. Even more troubling than the horse race numbers for Democrats is the dismal approval rating for the party and President Obama in the state. Just 25 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of the Democratic party while a whopping 61 percent view the party unfavorably. Obama fares better -- 41 favorable/54 unfavorable -- but his numbers are down significantly in a state he only lost by eight points in 2008.
5. If it's Friday, it's the " Live Fix" chat. And, what a chat it will be with the Massachusetts Senate race just 96 hours away, "Game Change" out and a trio of Republican retirements in recent weeks. You can submit questions in advance or just follow along in real time from 11 a.m. to noon. Be there!
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