 | | Tuesday, January 19, 2010 |  | |  | | MORNING FIX
BY CHRIS CILLIZZA | | | | washingtonpost.com/thefix
Special election day in Massachusetts
1. Voters are voting in Massachusetts! Polls in the Commonwealth are open from 7 a.m. until 8 p.m. and conventional wisdom has gelled that state Sen. Scott Brown (R) enters election day as the slight favorite to pull an upset of massive proportions over state Attorney General Martha Coakley (D). As always in an election, there things we know and things we don't know. Here's a look at a few of the most critical knowns/unknowns. What We Know: Independents are breaking heavily for Brown. What We Don't: By how much can Coakley afford to lose independents given the state's strong Democrat leanings? 60-40? 65-35? What We Know: Democratic intensity/interest in the special election has improved considerably over the last few days. What We Don't: Does the fact that loyal Democrats are now more keen on turning out to vote make Coakley more competitive? Or are these people who would never have voted for Brown anyway? What We Know: Millions -- upon millions -- of dollars have poured into Brown's campaign account over the past 10 days. What We Don't: With television time entirely sold out, can Brown smartly spend those dollars on get out the vote efforts? Or will millions go wasted simply because the financial piece of the race broke too late? What We Know: National Democrats with a major assist from organized labor are going all out from an organizational perspective -- they have taken over every aspect of Coakley's campaign -- to save this race. What We Don't: Is everything national Democrats are doing too little, too late? Can organizational might save what has been, to put it mildly, a campaign with deep messaging problems? What We Know: The broad swath of polling released over the last few days suggests that Brown has the momentum. What We Don't: How reliable any of this polling is given that there is no historical parallel for a Senate special election in January, making it extremely difficult to figure out who will vote and who won't vote. ALSO NOTE: The Fix will be covering the heck out of the Massachusetts Senate race today so check back regularly for updates. Also, check out the Fix Twitter feed for more instantaneous updating. ALSO READ: What Massachusetts could mean for the politics of health care.
2. Win or lose today, Republicans are already moving to take advantage of the Massachusetts race in other contests across the country. "It is important to keep in mind that this contest is not an isolated incident," National Republican Congressional Committee communications director Ken Spain wrote in a memo distributed to reporters Monday. "The political environment is toxic for Democrats all across the country." The narrative of the past few months has been a difficult one for Democrats with five House Members in swing seats announcing their retirements, another conservative Democrat switching parties, Republican recruitment surging and now the potential loss of a Senate seat in the bluest state in the country. Democrats have successfully beat back (most) of the stories that suggest a wave is building but will be helpless to withstand the flood if Coakley comes up short today.
3. New polling out of Nebraska shows Sen. Ben Nelson (D) struggling in the wake of his vote late last year in favor of President Obama's health care package, data sure to make already-nervous Democrats even more fretful. Forty two percent of those polled approved of the job Nelson is doing while 48 percent were disapproving in the Omaha World-Herald poll. Other numbers in the poll were equally troubling for Nelson: more than six in ten Nebraskans disapprove of the health care bill and 44 percent said his vote for the bill would "count against him" when he stands for reelection in 2012. Even before the controversy over his health care vote -- and the so-called "Cornhusker Kickback" -- Nelson was regarded as one of the most vulnerable incumbents up for reelection next cycle. Two things potentially work in his favor, however: 1) Voters tend to have relatively short memories, meaning that while Nelson's health care vote is a huge deal today, it may be less important in two years time. 2) The most obvious Republican nominee -- popular Gov. Dave Heineman (R) -- has little interest in coming to Washington, according to those close to him. But, in announcing his reelection bid on Monday, Heineman clearly left the door open to a run. "What I am trying to be careful about is never say never to a particular race," he said. "And, in particular, this race because it's the citizens of Nebraska who are asking me to take a look at it."
4. Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) is seriously considering a run for the now open House seat of retiring Rep. Vic Snyder (D-Ark.), a move that would solve two Democratic problems at once: putting a strong candidate in what will be a difficult seat for them to hold and eliminating a potentially serious primary challenge for endangered Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D). While some Democrats insisted Monday that Halter had already made up his mind to run for House, those who had spoken to him insisted no decision had been made. "I am grateful, I am listening and I am now seriously considering all options," Halter said in a statement. Polling conducted in December suggested that Halter would begin a primary against Lincoln as an underdog but that his candidacy was far from quixotic. It's not clear what the electoral forecast would be for Halter if he ran for Snyder's seat. The Little-Rock based district went for Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) in 2008 by ten points but Snyder has held it for more than a decade without any serious opposition. Former U.S. attorney Tim Griffin (R) has been in the contest for months and a poll conducted for the liberal Firedoglake blog showed him leading Snyder by 17 points.
5. Maria Comella, a longtime campaign hand, is going into governing -- taking over as communications director for New Jersey Gov.-elect Chris Christie (R). Comella spent the 2008 cycle working for the presidential campaign of former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani and stayed on as press adviser to Giuliani through his decision not to run for higher office in 2010 in New York. In addition to her work for Giuliani, Comella served as an adviser to Christie during his successful defeat of Gov. Jon Corzine (D) last fall. "I clearly enjoy working for former U.S. Attorneys who aren't afraid of a challenge," said Comella of her new gig.
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