 | | Monday, January 18, 2010 |  | |  | | MORNING FIX
BY CHRIS CILLIZZA | | | | washingtonpost.com/thefix
National Democrats scramble to save Coakley in Mass. special election
1. President Obama sought to cast tomorrow's special election in Massachusetts as a referendum on the past versus the future in a speech at a campaign rally for state Attorney General Martha Coakley on Sunday. "Understand what is at stake here Massachusetts," said Obama. "Are we going backward or forward?" That remark -- and Obama's very presence in the state just 48 hours before the vote -- is evidence that Democrats believe their only strategy is to nationalize the race around Obama, who remains popular in the strongly Democratic Bay State. Strategists on both sides said data from over the weekend suggested Brown holds a narrow lead but Democrats insisted that the excitement in their base had begun to tick upwards -- likely the result of the last minute visits from Obama and former president Bill Clinton. (A senior level Democrat said that Organizing for America, the grassroots campaign arm of the Democratic National Committee had seen a "15 percent uptick in likely Democratic participation" over the last few days.) Republicans, however, remain confident -- insisting that the race's structure has largely cemented despite the efforts of national Democrats to change it. That sentiment was echoed in an analysis released Sunday afternoon by political handicapper Charlie Cook: "Given the vagaries of voter turnout, particularly in lower participation level special elections, this race could still go either way, but we put a finger on the scale for Brown," wrote Cook.
2. It's hard to overestimate the political impact of tomorrow's race in Massachusetts on this November's midterm election. Democratic strategists have already begun to fret privately that a loss by Coakley could set off a chain reaction that could significantly worsen the party's outlook this fall. Democratic members of the House and, to a lesser extent, the Senate, who are already fretting about the possibility of losing their seats in 2010, would almost certainly take Coakley's defeat as an indication of the toxicity of the national environment and head for the hills. Recruitment efforts would also grow far more complicated as convincing ambitious pols to take the risk of running in such an atmosphere would be tricky at best, impossible at worst. To date, Democrats have done an admirable job of keeping retirements in their ranks from spinning out of control. But a loss in a deep-blue state like Massachusetts -- in a race for the late Ted Kennedy's seat no less -- would set off a panic the likes of which hasn't been seen in Democratic electoral politics in a decade or more.
3. A new Washington Post/ABC News survey suggests that the American people are growing increasingly pessimistic about the direction of the country after experiencing a brief uptick in the early days of Obama's presidency. Just more than one in three (37 percent) said the country was headed in the right direction while 62 percent said it was off on the wrong track. Those numbers represent slippage from a November Post/ABC poll (44 percent right direction/55 percent wrong track) and major erosion from an April 2009 survey (50 percent right direction/48 percent wrong track). Among independents, the numbers are even more grim with just 33 percent saying the country is headed in the right direction and 66 percent saying it is off on the wrong track. The president's health care bill, which has been a major point of contention in the Massachusetts race, is looked at unfavorably by a majority (52 percent) of the sample and, more importantly, there is a major intensity gap between those who strongly disapprove of the legislation (43 percent) and those who strongly approve (24 percent). There are some bright spots for Obama in the data; 53 percent approve of the job he is doing while 44 percent disapprove -- a slight improvement from his 50/46 numbers in mid-December -- and far more voters trust him to handle the issues of the day (47 percent) than trust Republicans in Congress (24 percent). ALSO READ: The Post's Dan Balz analysis of Obama's first year in office -- and what to expect in the next year.
4. Republicans hoping to reverse Democratic gains in the Southwest over the past few elections got a boost over the weekend when Pete Domenici Jr., the son of the longtime New Mexico senator, announced his gubernatorial candidacy in the Land of Enchantment. Domenici's well-known last name -- his father served in the Senate for nearly four decades before retiring in 2008 -- gives Republicans a potentially serious candidate to oppose Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) this fall although he must survive a primary fight. Republicans had previously tried to convince former representatives Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce to run for governor; Wilson demurred and Pearce decided to seek the 2nd district seat he held prior to an unsuccessful run for Senate in 2008. Domenici Jr., an attorney, has never sought elected office before and, in Denish, will face a well-funded and popular politician. Denish ended 2009 with $2.5 million in the bank and independent polling showed her as a strong frontrunner against any of the previously announced Republicans.
5. Vincent A. Buddy Cianci Jr., the famous (and infamous) former mayor of Providence, R.I., is weighing a political comeback -- to the joy of political junkies everywhere. Cianci, who is a two-time convicted felon, has acknowledged to the Providence Journal that he is weighing a run against Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D) among other races. "There is plenty of interest in that," said Cianci of a run for Congress. "People have asked me, and I've said I'd have to take a good look at it." Wow. WOW. Kennedy, for what it's worth, has held his 1st district seat since 1994 and has never won with less than 60 percent.
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