Morning Fix: Ad spending tops $6 million in Mass. Senate special election

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Wednesday, January 13, 2010
MORNING FIX
BY CHRIS CILLIZZA

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Ad spending tops $6 million in Mass. Senate special election

1. Ad spending by the candidates, party committees and outside organizations in the final week of the Massachusetts Senate special election will go over $6 million, according to a detailed look at expenditures provided to the Fix. The two candidates are the biggest spenders with state Sen. Scott Brown (R) dropping just short of $2 million in the final week while state Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) is spending $1.5 million. While Brown is outspending Coakley, Democratic-affiliated outside groups are making up the difference, with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in for $831,000 and the Service Employees International Union spending $685,000 on ads. More groups are buying television time on the Republican side -- four in total -- with the Chamber of Commerce ($400,000) and the American Future Fund ($375,000) leading the way. (In an odd twist, New Hampshire Senate candidate Bill Binnie is spending $200,000 -- through a group called Americans for Responsible Health Care -- on ads in support of Brown.) The massive spending in the race's final week is further evidence that both sides believe it is up for grabs and are doing everything they can to try and tilt what now looks like a very close contest.

2. Former Tennessee representative Harold Ford Jr. sat down with the New York Times Monday to discuss his increasingly likely challenge to appointed New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D). The highlights: 1) Ford on the "why" behind the candidacy: "Upon really moving here, and spending time here, I have had a number of people inquire whether New York would be a place that I would consider pursuing a political career." 2) Ford repeatedly emphasized his independence during his time in Congress and hit Gillibrand for how she came into the seat. "She is not the incumbent," he said. "New Yorkers have never had a chance to vote for her. She has never stood on the ballot before." 3) Ford would oppose the Obama administration's health care plan; "I couldn't support a health care bill that places the kind of burdens on New York State that this one does," he said. 4) Among the places in the Empire State Ford has visited outside New York City: Buffalo and Syracuse, and he will be in Rochester and Albany in the near future. 5) Ford on abortion: "I have been painted as being this right-wing zealot on choice. Nothing could be further from the truth." Ford on abortion, part deux: "To say that I am pro life is just wrong. I am personally pro-choice and legislatively pro-choice." Read the whole interview. WELL worth it.

3. Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz's stunning decision to pull out of the governor's race to instead pursue the now-open state attorney general's post creates the very real possibility that liberal blogosphere hero Ned Lamont could be the next governor of the Nutmeg State. With Bysiewicz out, the Democratic primary for governor is a two way fight between Lamont, who ousted Sen. Joe Lieberman in a 2006 Democratic primary only to lose to Lieberman in the general election, and Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy who ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination for governor in 2006. Lamont has two clear advantages in a one-on-one primary fight against Malloy. First, he is a darling of the liberal left (both in the state and nationally), a terrific place to be in a primary fight likely to be controlled by liberals. Second, Lamont has significant personal wealth and a willingness to spend it -- he dropped $17 million of his own money on the 2006 Senate race -- that could make a huge difference in a state covered in part by the pricey New York City media market. And, while Republicans believe either Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele or former ambassador Tom Foley will have a fighting chance in the general election, the Democratic nominee has to be considered the favorite due to the state's Democratic lean and the long string of Republican control of the governor's mansion. Governor Lamont, then, isn't such a far-fetched idea.

4. Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper's gubernatorial candidacy, announced Tuesday, gives Democrats a fighting chance to hold the seat -- more than they could say just eight days ago when embattled Gov. Bill Ritter (D) looked like he was still planning to run for reelection. National Republicans, letting partisan bomb-throwing get in the way of common sense, issued a release pronouncing Hickenlooper a "third tier" candidate despite poll data that shows the mayor is among the most popular elected officials in the state. That's not to say Democrats won't face a real fight in Colorado, a fight they might have avoided if Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, clearly their strongest candidate, had decided to return to the state to run. Among Hickenlooper's hurdles: 1) He faces the prospect of a primary fight against former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff who is currently running a primary against appointed Sen. Michael Bennet. There is an effort underway to get Romanoff to run for lieutenant governor under Hickenlooper, a move that would solve all of Colorado Democrats' problems but it's not clear whether Romanoff is interested in the job. 2) Republicans will now be able to cast the race as choice between Denver and the rest of the state. (Former Rep. Scott McInnis, the near-certain Republican nominee, hails from the state's Western Slope.) Like most states, Colorado voters who don't live in Denver are suspicious of those who do -- a dynamic Republicans will seek to stoke. 3) Hickenlooper, while well known in the sprawling Denver media market, has never run statewide before and must adjust on the fly to doing so. McInnis, of course, is making his first statewide bid as well so it may wind up being a moot point.

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